Al Shabaab has remained resilient to increased military pressure, however, proving itself capable of both “geographic expansion and high lethality attacks.” The militant group intensified operations toward the end of 2019, including a bomb attack on a checkpoint in Mogadishu that killed 81 people (News24, 30 December 2019). Immigrant communities are faced with potential backlash by indigenous communities in the northeast region, as well as the threat of mass violence by ULFA militants. 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There was an uptick in violence particularly in the third quarter of 2019, as the two sides got close to an agreement before US President Donald Trump abruptly suspended the talks in September (BBC, 8 September 2019). Religious teachers and authors, especially some conservative Christians, often draw on these kinds of current events as examples of how various predictions and descriptions in … My mum lives here and you just never know,” Todd said, adding that growing up in the area was difficult with so much sectarian violence. Religious conflict among most pressing issues in India: Survey 26 Aug, 2016, 03.49 PM IST. Somalia: High risk of Al Shabaab adapting to dominate and isolate a weak government. An “actor based” file displays events by single actors instead, meaning that events are often repeated if two actors are involved. ACLED is a registered non-profit organization with 501(c)(3) status in the United States. However, this system is increasingly viewed as obsolete and fostering political incompetence and corruption. Furthermore, Iran shot down a US surveillance drone and seized a British-owned oil tanker near the Strait of Hormuz last summer. (Addis Standard, 23 November 2019). While violent events make up only 1% of the pilot data, they resulted in nearly 50 fatalities — a disproportionately deadly trend linked primarily to mass shootings. Students have been taking an increasingly prominent role in the demonstrations. It divides countries. Commonly referred to as "troubles," this period is defined by the conflict between Catholic republicans and nationalists, and Protestant loyalists and unionists. “When we first moved in here [seven years ago], it was mental with things coming over [the wall] and kids not being able to play on the street,” said Rosanne Thompson, 38, a professional caregiver who has a peace wall running across the back garden of her council house. Franziska Pfadt is the Learning Coordinator at ACLED. Lastly, Egypt’s opposition to Ethiopia’s building of a hydropower dam on the Nile has threatened conflict for many years. There wasn’t a night when something didn’t happen,” Brennan, 70, who spent time in prison for his involvement with the Irish republican movement, said while walking past Gaelic street signs and white-, green- and orange-colored Irish national flags. Sources and Links on Current Wars in Africa: 1. In this report, ACLED has chosen 10 conflicts that demonstrate how violent political disorder is evolving in places it has festered for decades — such as Afghanistan — as well as in relatively new spaces — such as the United States. The president tasked the newly formed National Guard – composed of military and federal forces, as well as new recruits – with addressing the problem, thereby prolonging the formerly unsuccessful militarization of the security situation. Similar to recent years, violent events were reported in all 34 provinces throughout 2019. As the region is a focal point of immigration from Bangladesh, issues regarding immigration policy have been a continued source of conflict between the indigenous and immigrant populations. Just a few streets up from Thompson lies the “Protestant enclave” — as many Belfast residents describe it — of Cluan Place, one of the most notorious loyalist areas in the city. But before any substantial reduction in violence can be achieved, the two sides will have to agree about the future of Afghanistan’s democracy and electoral process, rights of women, the fate of heavily armed warlords, and a host of other highly contentious issues (USA Today, 29 December 2019). Since 2015, USIP has helped Syrian leaders resolve conflicts in their communities. Simultaneously, the largest protest movement recorded during ACLED’s pilot project was the “Lights for Liberty” campaign, which called for immigration reforms like ending the “Remain in Mexico” policy and the closure of migrant detention centers. During the second year of Abiy’s term, ACLED has recorded clashes between ethnic militias and communal groups near the Oromo-Afar regional state borders, the Guji Oromo-Gedeo community border areas, the Amhara-Gumuz regional state borders, the Oromo-Benishangul Gumuz regional state borders, and the Oromo special zones in Amhara region, among others – resulting in the displacement of millions (Africa News, 13 May 2019). In central, eastern, and southern India, the ongoing Naxal-Maoist insurgency persistently threatens to subvert government authority and democratic processes in the region. Causes of Boko Haram Conflict in Nigeria Researcher Matthias Basedau says weak African states are a major cause. The central government is weak and … The US escalation is part of an effort to weaken Al Shabaab prior to the upcoming handover of security operations from AMISOM to the Somali armed forces. Voter turnout was low: with approximately a million initial votes purged due to irregularities, only 1.8 million ballots were counted, representing less than 20% of registered voters and 12% of the total voting age population (Afghanistan Analysts, 22 December 2019). Protestant loyalists, meanwhile, fear the potential of a united Ireland. The situation could then spiral into full-scale war. Mexico is confronted with an increasingly complex, fragmented, and multipolar criminal market and a resolution to these structural problems is unlikely in the short-term, raising the possibility of intensified conflict in the new year. While outright war is not likely, Egypt and other stakeholders could attempt to influence Ethiopia’s domestic politics by working with various ethnic groups in an attempt to sway future plans concerning the dam (BBC, 7 November 2019). Cybersecurity. During that period a number of Jews from Russia and Eastern Europe began arriving in Palestine. In 2015, USIP and our Syrian partner convened 14 leaders—representing religious, tribal, and civic segments of society—for talks on tensions in the al-Qahtaniya area of northeast Syria. As Washington overpromises and underdelivers, … In August, allegations of police officers raping and sexually abusing women led to a demonstration movement that has become known as the “glitter protests.”. Naxal-Maoist conflict in Bihar, the historic violent political rivalry between the BJP and Trinamool Congress Party (TMC) in West Bengal, and retaliation against the unpopular CAA in Assam all present significant law and order challenges. To explore an interactive visualization of this special report, click here. But for Brennan, Forsyth, Thompson and many others living near peace walls in Belfast and around Northern Ireland, it seems they are going to be a source of security for the foreseeable future. On the other hand, Taliban militants launched large offensives on a number of provincial capitals and against security forces to gain ground or consolidate their position. In late 2018, five Bengali Hindus were reportedly killed by militants in Assam. The vast majority of events involving gangs recorded by ACLED in 2019 were instances of violence against civilians. “A big part of what we do and how we bring change is about bringing people from either side of our community together, getting them to know one another and breaking down those mental barriers, because they’re the hardest barriers to break down.". To download real-time and historical data for a specific region, country, or location, select the relevant areas from those categories and leave all other categories as they are. The recent uptick in Al Shabaab operations against targets in both Somalia and Kenya is likely to continue into 2020, posing a major security challenge for the Somali national government and its partners as they seek legitimacy by providing safety and security. “Everybody wants to live in peace, but I can’t see it. Tens of thousands of troops were moved into the region (India Today, 2 August 2019), political leaders were placed under house arrest (Al Jazeera, 17 August 2019), and severe communications restrictions were imposed. Heightened tension between India and Pakistan surrounding the Kashmir issue, coupled with dissent against the perceived anti-Muslim nature of the Indian government’s policies surrounding Kashmir and the CAA, will perpetuate the environment of mistrust between Islamabad and New Delhi. Ethiopia: At risk of increased fragmentation despite a popular leader. Read Also: The Nexus between Climate Change and Herdsmen Crisis in Nigeria. Outlook for 2020: In late 2020 or early 2021, Somalia hopes to hold its first direct parliamentary and … Complicating the matter is a lack of effective cooperation between the central government and federal states, which has become “an obstacle to achieving important national priorities” (AP, 21 November 2019). Former education minister and university professor, Hassan Diab, was nominated to replace Prime Minister Hariri by Shia parties Hezbollah and Amal in addition to the Maronite Future Patriotic Movement (FPM). While its collapse in Nangarhar was a major setback, the group’s fighters remain active in Kunar and several other provinces. Rationing of electricity and water, as well as restrictions on bank withdrawals have led to increased frustrations among the public. Britain, France, and Germany have triggered a dispute resolution mechanism that could lead to the reinstatement of UN sanctions. Belgium seeks to ease virus rules on religious services. Following the Pulwama attack, Indian fighter jets launched strikes on militant targets in Pakistan. To access a full copy of the report, click here. Hoover Institution. The Current Situation in Iraq. The conference brought together high-profile experts, international organizations, business leaders, government officials and academics for a conversation on the challenges faced by cities, especially in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. The word conflict is as old as mankind. Learn about the world's top hotspots with this interactive Global Conflict Tracker from the Center for Preventive Action at the Council on Foreign Relations. The Crusades helps us to understand the long history of religion and violence. Frank Brennan talks about members of the Irish Republican Army killed during Northern Ireland's "troubles." Lately, the Central African government officially declared war against the militia groups and started their own round of attacks. This is partially because governments in the world’s most violent places are no longer in control of their territories, nor show any interest or ability to resume control through direct or indirect authority. If peace talks fail, intensification of fighting could pose a serious threat to the Afghan government unless the US is willing to extend its military mission in the country. IS-K could especially appeal to mid- and low-level Taliban commanders who may lose out in a peace deal, or the militants who wish to continue the fight against those who they see as infidels. My mum lives here and you just never know.". Amid Iraq’s Turmoil, Tal Afar Builds Peace. His reformist agendas have been met with much applause from the international community. The trends identified in ACLED’s pilot data are likely to intensify around the 2020 general election. Related: A New Protestant beginning for the Irish language in Belfast. There are concerns that a peace deal could drive Taliban forces to IS-K, enabling the group to expand its insurgency. A full list of country and time period coverage can be found here. Indirect negotiations between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis in Oman, prisoner exchanges, and the reopening of Sana’a international airport for humanitarian and medical purposes represent renewed attempts to break the cycle of violence after the UN-backed Stockholm Agreement, which led to a significant drop in violence in Hodeidah. A lot of lies have been told on both the 'leave' and "remain" campaigns, and personally I think, once again, Northern Ireland and our communities are being played as a pawn in the game,” he said. 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